Waiting until fall won’t make homes more affordable, but here’s what will

In the last six years, the typical American home started requiring a much higher salary. Today, according to the Housing Studies’ 2026 State of the Nation’s Housing report, a household needs an income of more than $120,000 to afford the payment on a median-priced home. In 2020, that number was just $66,000. So in only six years, the price of becoming a homeowner has nearly doubled, and for millions of people, buying a home has started to feel like less and less of a possibility.

When faced with that number, most prospective buyers land on the same plan: wait for fall, when the market cools, or for a rate cut or a correction. I get questions about this all the time from prospective buyers. They wonder whether it makes more sense to move this summer or hold out for the second half of the year. Given the moment and these questions, it’s worth looking honestly at what the second half of 2026 is actually forecast to hold for prospective homebuyers.

What the second half of 2026 actually looks like for buyers

The answer is likely more of the same. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects rates to hold near 6.5% through the end of the year, and Fannie Mae’s outlook is nearly identical. The median home price just set a record in June, the 36th straight month of year-over-year increases. While prices are only climbing slowly, they’re still not falling. Fall will bring the usual seasonal lull, with a few less crowded open houses but essentially the same rate and the same prices buyers face today. 

Even if rates do drift lower against expectations, the large pool of sidelined buyers may come back, and the negotiating leverage available in today’s better-stocked market will shrink quickly. That’s why waiting until fall to check out the market won’t necessarily buy relief.

So my answer to the buy-now-or-wait question is that it’s the wrong question. The right one is whether you’re prepared because preparation, not timing, is where affordability actually gets made this year. And over two decades in lending has taught me that for a surprising number of buyers, the door isn’t locked. 

The down payment myth that’s keeping buyers on the sidelines

Nearly half of consumers believe they need a down payment of 16% or more to buy a home. However, the typical first-time buyer has put down between 6% and 9% since 2018, and that number has never once topped 10% in more than three decades of record-keeping. The gap between what buyers assume and what buyers actually do is enormous. 

Zero- and low-down-payment programs exist across the market, some without private mortgage insurance, and conventional loans can go as low as 3% down for first-time buyers. Service members, Veterans and military families have earned benefits along exactly these lines, and they go chronically underused because many don’t even know they exist.

Instead of waiting for the market to move in the second half of the year, prospective homebuyers should assess their personal financial situation, goals and options first. While rates and prices play a big role in what buyers can afford, there’s also missing information and available options that many families in the market for a house go unexplored. 

I’ve sat across from people who were qualified to buy years before they believed they were, not because of a change in the market but because they now had a more accurate picture of the possibilities.

Knowing your number before you know your home

Preparation impacts the other way around too. Many times, if buyers are struggling after closing, it’s not because they bought at the wrong time. They may have chosen to buy based on a listing price or rate, forgetting to account for taxes, insurance, dues and maintenance, or treated a pre-approval as a target when it’s really a ceiling. The buyers who thrive in any market know their full monthly cost, keep it comfortably below about 28% of gross income and decide their own number underneath whatever a lender approves.

First-time buyers made up a third of home sales in June, a larger share than a year ago, in the same market everyone else is waiting out. There’s room to get in if it’s the right time for you and your family.

For buyers who are financially ready and have good options in mind, moving sooner makes more sense than holding out for a fall that forecasts say will look just like today. And for buyers who aren’t ready yet, the second half of 2026 gives them more time to prepare and see if their situation changes.

Roger Strecker is the residential lending expert at Navy Federal Credit Union.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners. To contact the editor responsible for this piece: zeb@hwmedia.com.